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Chernobyl's Elusive Bottom Line |
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By Julio Godoy*
No
one knows exactly how many more people will die from the effects
of the nuclear accident in Ukraine 20 years ago. Some say 4,000
more, but others argue the total could reach 100,000.
PARIS - Twenty years after the accident at
the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the worst in atomic energy history,
governments, international institutions, scientists and environmentalists
continue to debate the true extent of the disaster's impacts on
human health.
On Apr. 26, 1986, a series of fires and explosion at the Ukranian
energy plant released radioactive material that spread through the
atmosphere over Western and Eastern Europe, especially over Ukraine
itself, Belarus and Russia -- the three were Soviet republics at
the time.
A study by international environment watchdog Greenpeace says that
in those three countries alone, by 2056 the accident will have claimed
the lives of more than 93,000 people through thyroid cancer, leukemia,
and blood and respiratory diseases.
The Greenpeace total is based on scientists' analysis of the three
countries and contradicts the official report from the World Health
Organization (WHO) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
published in September, which says just 56 people have died so far
as a direct result of the Chernobyl accident and estimates that
around 4,000 more people will die in the longer term.
Other studies by European scientists also suggest that the WHO-IAEA
report minimizes the number of victims. Such is the case of Elizabeth
Cardis, radiologist for the International Agency for Research on
Cancer, based in Lyon, France, and co-author of one of the latest
investigations of the matter, to be published in June.
"By 2065 there will be some 41,000 cases of cancer in Western Europe.
Of those, 16,000 will be fatal," Cardis told Tierramérica in an
interview.
These estimates are based on statistical analyses of the number
of people exposed to the radioactive cloud in several European countries,
including France, Austria, Germany and Italy, the different levels
of exposure to the radiation, and the number of cancer cases recorded
since 1986.
According to that study, the Chernobyl accident will claim the lives
of at least 16,000 people in thyroid cancer deaths in Western Europe,
and 25,000 more to other types of cancer. The study did not focus
on Eastern Europe.
"The 20 years that have passed since the Chernobyl accident are
a very short period to analyze in an exhaustive way the development
of diseases whose symptoms are recognizable only after decades,"
Cardis explained.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the former Soviet Union,
which had jurisdiction over Ukraine in 1986, hid the most basic
information about the accident and its consequences.
There exists no official registry of the personnel who worked on
the reactor after the catastrophe. Unknown are the names, locations
and current health status of tens of thousands of people who were
directly exposed to the radiation.
Despite the Chernobyl accident and its consequences, many governments
and the nuclear industry in Europe continue to defend atomic energy
as clean and safe, arguing that it contributes to the fight against
climate change because it does not produce gases that contribute
to the greenhouse effect, as do petroleum derivatives.
Some countries launched new nuclear research programs and have announced
construction of nuclear reactors over the next five years. The French
government recently approved construction of three reactors, the
first of which would begin operating in 2012. The others are slated
to begin energy production in 2020.
With its 58 reactors, which generate 78.5 percent of the country's
electricity, France is the nation most reliant on atomic energy.
Jean-Philippe Desbordes, author of the book "Atomic Park - a la
recherche de victimes du nucléaire" (in search of the victims of
nuclear energy), said in a Tierramérica interview that "just one
accident on the scale of Chernobyl in France would convince the
French authorities to renounce atomic energy."
In Germany, leaders of the Christian Democratic Union, which governs
the country in coalition with the Social Democratic Party, insists
on reviewing the decision to gradually dismantle all functioning
nuclear reactors by 2025.
For Roland Koch, head of government in the central state of Hesse,
"suspending the use of atomic energy in Germany is foolishness."
But environmentalists criticize Koch, saying he does not have valid
responses to questions about managing radioactive waste and the
production of material that could be used in atomic weapons.
"Nuclear power is inherently highly dangerous and despite claims
of improvements in safety, scientists agree that another catastrophe
on the scale of Chernobyl could happen at any time, anywhere," said
Gerd Leipold, executive director of Greenpeace International.
"We must ensure that no more Chernobyls ever take place again, and
ensure that atomic energy has no future, investing instead in renewable
alternatives. On the 20th anniversary of Chernobyl, governments
and international bodies such as the IAEA must exercise their moral
duty to future generations by committing to a rapid and permanent
eradication of nuclear power," Leipold said.
* Julio Godoy is an IPS correspondent.
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